Subsidizing Progressives: Portland Needs New Blood to Solve Persistent Problems

Portland voters could learn something from feminist writer and civil rights campaigner Rita Mae Brown. She was right on when she wrote, ‘Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

The seven candidates for the restructured City Council who have qualified so far for matching funds from Portland’s Small Donor Elections Program are all self-proclaimed progressives, Willamette Week reports.

Under the Small Donor Elections Program, candidates for office must raise a certain number of contributions to qualify for city matching funds.  Mayoral candidates can earn up to $100,000 in matching funds. City Council candidates can earn up to $120,000 in matching funds.

It’s progressives who have been the most ardent advocates of tolerance for raucous, violent and and destructive demonstrations, drug liberalization, sprawling homeless encampments in public spaces, escalating gun violence, limits on criminal penalties, and crude and threatening public behavior. 

So now it looks like Portland taxpayers are going to finance the advocacy of a progressive agenda when it’s progressive foolishness that has driven Portlanders to despair in recent years.

Over half of respondents in a Dec. 2023 survey by DHM Research said Portland is moving in the wrong direction and that they are worse off now than they were two years ago. Eight in 10 said quality of life in Portland is getting worse and more said they had a negative view of future economic opportunities. Even Rep. Earl Blumenauer, a classic progressive, recognizes how bad things are.  “Portland is broken,” he said as far back as February 2022 when he announced his reelection bid. “Collectively it seems like we have challenges unlike any we have ever faced.”

Doesn’t that suggest Portlanders, instead of doubling down on progressive politicians and policies, should turn away from the destructive progressive government leadership practices of the past and embrace new political candidates with more responsible agendas? 

Abuse of Short-Term Rental Rules in Lake Oswego is Still Widespread

Lake Oswego encourages visitors.

“If you are visiting or thinking of visiting Lake Oswego, we welcome you,” says the city’s’ website. ” Whether you’re coming for business or pleasure, you’ll encounter an inviting community, friendly people and businesses, and plenty to see and do.”

At the same time, in response to citizen concerns about maintaining livability, Lake Oswego has tried to regulate short-term visitor rentals. But local property owners are widely ignoring the city’s short-term rental (STR) rules.

Lake Oswego tried to get a handle on controversial STRs in 2019 by enacting Ordinance 2815. The ordinance allows STRs (rentals of less than 31 days) of certain residential properties.

Since then, residents who want to operate a STR have been required to obtain a business license from the city and pay an $80 annual fee. They’re also required to pay Transient Lodging Taxes equal to 6% of taxable income from their STR. The tax revenue is used for the promotion and development of tourism and visitor programs for Lake Oswego.

It’s all pretty straightforward and simple. If you own a property being used for STRs, you need to get a business license and pay taxes on your revenue. But a review of city data on STR business licenses and on a national STR website reveals a lot of people are ignoring the ordinance, with the number of STRs and the number of scofflaws actually increasing over time.

At the end of 2022, according to AirDNA, a STR marketing firm, there were 90 active STRs in Lake Oswego, while information obtained from the city in response to a public records request revealed there were just 42 active STR business licenses. The discrepancy was brought to the attention of the City Council in hopes it would address the problem.

 AirDNA reports there are now 161 active STRs in Lake Oswego, but, according to publicly available Lake Oswego licensing data, there are just 81 active STR business licenses.

In other words, the number  of licensees has gone up, but so has the number of scofflaws. 

The STR occupancy rate over the past 12 months has been 66% and the average market charge per day has been $246.90.

The Lake Oswego STRs that have popped up include everything from a $61-a-night guest bedroom to a $288-a-night 3-bedroom home (“a serene sanctuary where the forest meets modern luxury.”) and a $1452-a-night massive luxurious estate with 7 bedrooms, plus a pool, sauna, hot tub and theater room.  

It’s not possible to identify the addresses of all the properties without trying to book them one by one. Website maps, reveal, however, that they are spread all over Lake Oswego. 

If a STR is found to be in violation of City Code, the city may suspend or revoke its business license, if it has one. The property owner may also be cited and have to pay a fine or appear in Municipal Court.

So come on malingerers. Step up. Do the right thing. 

Don’t Bet on Truth Social Saving You, Mr. Trump

Coincidentally, and perhaps fatefully, the ticker symbol of the newly listed Truth Social company on NASDAQ is DJT, (Donald Trump’s initials), the same ticker symbol used by Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors in federal bankruptcy court in New Jersey in 2004.

Political and financial media are speculating that investor approval of a plan to take public Truth Social, Donald Trump’s social media company, will rescue him from the potentially catastrophic burdens of his multiple court cases.  My view – don’t count on it. 

On Friday, March 22, shareholders of Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) approved a deal to merge with Trump’s media business, Trump Media & Technology Group. The primary arm of Trump Media & Technology Group is the social networking site Truth Social. The stock, with a ticker symbol of DJT, will begin trading on the trading on Nasdaq next week. 

With DJT expected to start trading with a valuation of about $5 billion, Trump’s 60% stake will be worth about $3 billion at the outset. An amazing potential windfall for Trump.

But here’s the rub.

DWAC is a shell company, what’s known as a “special purpose acquisition company” or SPAC, which will be replaced by Trump Media & Technology Group. And SPACs have had a notoriously checkered history in the market.

During 2020-2021, SPAC’s were “an unmitigated mess for investors,” according to Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

SPACs that went public in 2020 had the worst performance, with a median loss to investors of more than 80 percent, according to Institutional Investor. Of the 431 SPACs that were able to complete a merger during 2020-2021, 90 percent had negative net returns. 

Companies brought public via SPACs also generated worse business results than their IPO counterparts, likely because they needed fast revenue growth to achieve sound profitability and didn’t get it.

The result? The De-SPAC Index, which measures the performance of companies taken public through a SPAC merger, fell 45% in 2021.

In 2022, most post-merger SPACs continued to perform poorly, with the De-SPAC Index falling almost 75%. The following year, 2023, was no more rewarding for SPAC investors, with at least 21 firms that went public by merging with special purpose acquisition companies going bankrupt. 

Likely discouraging the SPAC trend further are regulatory changes approved ty the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024. 

All this means Donald Trump’s DJT will likely be an outlier in the market this year and the hype surrounding it may well burst in failure for investors, including Donald Trump. It’s best to remember, after all, that Trump Media & Technology Group booked just $3.3 million in revenue for the first nine months of 2023, according to a regulatory filing, and lost $49 million during that period. . 

Worse, Truth Social had only 494,000 monthly active US users in February 2024, and its user total has actually been shrinking, plunging 51% year over year in February,  according to Similarweb stats provided to CNN.

Then there’s the fact that Trump’ has been tied to other businesses that have gone bankrupt . “A number of companies that were associated with President Trump have filed for bankruptcy. There can be no assurances that TMTG will not also become bankrupt,” Trump Media said in its SEC filing.

Truth Social is also inextricably tied to Donald Trump himself, a 77-year-old man with an uncertain future.

The history of another hyped SPAC, EV company Lordstown Motors Corp., may be instructive.

Lordstown reverse merged with a SPAC, DiamondPeak Holdings, in October 2020 with an estimated equity value of $1.6 billion. The stock hit a peak of $31.40 a share on Sept. 21, 2020. 

Things went downhill from there. 

On June 27, 2023, Lordstown filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In September 2023, Lordstown agreed to sell its assets to Delaware-based LAS Capital, whose majority equity holder was Lordstown founder and ex-CEO Steve Burns, for $10 million.

The SPAC merger agreement prohibits Trump Media’s shareholders from selling their shares for six months after the deal is done. DWAC shares closed at a high of $97.54 in March and closed at $36.94 on Friday, March 22, 2024. DJT will likely be erratic as well. And there are no sure things on Wall Street.

In other words, Donald Trump’s 60% stake in the new company could well be worth less than $3 billion six months from now…a lot less.

Maybe even zero.

An added complication, though, is that DJT’s board could grant Trump a waiver that would allow him to sell shares before the six months are up. The likelihood of a waiver being granted is enhanced by the fact that the board includes one of Trump’s sons, three former members of his administration and former GOP Rep. Devin Nunes.

Don’t count on them being too concerned about the impact of a maj0r sale on other investors.

Drug Pushers on TV: Time to Stop

Pharmaceutical companies sometimes seem to be the only advertisers on television. Should they be?

The U.S. and New Zealand are the only countries that allow direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertisements, according to USC’s Center for Health Policy and Economics. The result? Drug utilization is” highly responsive” to advertising exposure and “…those who initiate treatment due to advertising are on average less adherent, which suggests that some of the increase in utilization might be unnecessary.”

Direct to consumer prescription drug advertising also exposes prospective users to often ignored risks. 

In a current television commercial for Abbvie’s Rinvoq, prescribed to treat arthritis in adults, a woman enjoys a trek through a rock canyon and a man teaches children how to tap dance. 

It all sounds so simple. Take this and you’ll get better.

But the truth is the drug has a lot of potential hazards, including:

  • Increased risk for developing serious infections that may lead to hospitalization or death. Reported infections include active tuberculosis (TB), invasive fungal infections, bacterial, viral, including herpes zoster, and other infections.
  • Lymphoma and other malignancies.
  • A higher rate of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke).
  • Thrombosis, including deep venous thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, and arterial thrombosis, with many of these adverse effects serious and some resulted in death.
  • Gastorintestinal (GI) perforations. 

In another case, Bristol Myers Squibb’s newest commercial for its heart disease drug, Camzyos, has a message of hope for Mike.

In a 90 second ad, Mike, a man living with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, enjoys a hike through a pleasant landscape.

“There were some days I was so short of breath I thought I’d have to settle for never stepping foot on this trail again,” Mike says in a voice-over. But now he takes Camzyos and his symptoms have improved.

But Camzyos has a lot of risks, too. Side effects may include:

  • Heart failure that can lead to death, with increased hazards when Camzyos is taken with certain other medications or grapefruit juice. 
  • New or worsening shortness of breath, chest pain, fatigue, swelling in your legs, or a racing sensation in your heart. 
  • Harm to your unborn baby if you are you pregnant or breastfeeding or you plan to become pregnant or breastfeed.
  • A reduction in how well hormonal birth control works.
  • Dizziness and fainting.

And if you take too much Camzyos, you need to call your healthcare provider or go to the nearest hospital emergency room right away.

The message of both commercials? Adam Lenkowsky, executive vice president, chief commercialization officer and head of U.S. oncology at Bristol Meyers Squibb said at a Jan. 4, 2024, investor event that the point of the commercials it’s to “bring patients into treatment”. 

In other words, the companies aren’t really pitching their drugs directly to consumers. Instead, they want prospective patients to badger doctors to prescribe it.

Such appeals must drive doctors crazy. After all, if the promoted drug was a realistic treatment option, a doctor would likely have already thought of it. The commercials are an attempt to get in the middle of the patient-doctor relationship in a way that favors the drug company. 

The FDA requires that drug advertisements “…must present a fair balance of drug benefits and risks, with the most important risks provided in an audio (i.e., spoken) format.”  But counterintuitively, “… in giving a laundry list of side effects associated with any given prescription drug…consumers may actually be more likely to believe that the drug is effective in treating the condition for which it is designed,” argues Cohen, Placitella & Roth, a Pennsylvania and New Jersey law firm that handles pharmaceutical litigation. 

In 2015, the American Medical Association called for a ban of direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) for prescription drugs. Nevertheless, spending by the pharmaceutical industry on television advertisements has continued to accelerate, with national health care costs largely driven by drug spending.

It’s time to renew, and act on, AMA’s call.

UPDATE: Oct. 7, 2025: Trump’s Crackdown on Drug Ads Could Sting TV Networks

The pharmaceutical industry shelled out nearly $11 billion in 2024 for U.S. ads, and is on track to top that this year. 

The Department of Health and Human Services said Tuesday that it plans to close a decades-old loophole in Food and Drug Administration guidance that permits abbreviated descriptions of drug side effects in broadcast ads, as long as companies provide more information elsewhere, like online. That 1997 guidance is credited with fueling the boom in TV drug ads.  The administration move targets drug manufacturers’ TV ads and paid social-media ads from telehealth firms. In a letter to companies dated Tuesday, the FDA said social media has made it “increasingly difficult for patients to distinguish between evidence-based information and promotional material.” The pharmaceutical industry is among the heaviest advertising spenders in the U.S. When it comes to commercial spots during in-demand shows, they are even more prevalent. Pharmaceutical ads are the third-biggest category for linear TV and streaming ad spending in the U.S., according to estimates from MediaRadar.  Brian Wieser, an industry analyst, estimated that pharmaceutical ads account for 20% of all TV news advertising. The potential impact “will not go unnoticed,” he said. 

A New I-5 Bridge: A Vital Transit Link or a Corridor for Crime?

The I-5 Bridge connecting Oregon and Washington

NOTE: Paul O. Edgar, a retired Business Systems Analyst, submitted a response to this post. It is reprinted at the conclusion of my post.

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Shades of the U.S.-Mexico border conflict.

Stephen F. Austin, the “father of Texas”, had strong opinions about ” invaders”. In a May 4, 1836 letter, appealing for U.S. assistance during Texas’ war of independence, Austin declared “A war of extermination is raging in Texas — a war of barbarism and of despotic principles waged by the mongrel Spanish-Indian and Negro race, against civilization and the Anglo-American race…. Indians, Mexicans, and renegades, all mixed together, and all the natural enemies of white men and civilization.”

It doesn’t look like Republican Joe Kent, who lost his 2022 race in Washington’s in Washington’s Third Congressional District against Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and is challenging her again in 2024, likes outsiders much either,, especially folks from Oregon.

In mid-January 2024, Kent proclaimed that a replacement for the deteriorating I-5 bridge and a new light rail line “… would be an expressway for Portland’s crime & homeless into Vancouver…”

“…the drug addicts and criminals in their tent colonies that are spreading their crime from Portland into Vancouver…,” are not welcome in his district, he said.

In a Feb. 29, 2024 news release, Kent repeated that allegation. “What we don’t need – and the people of my district agree on this regardless of party – is a toll road that unfairly targets Washingtonians commuting to Portland, or light rail that there is no demand for and would bring Portland’s crime problem further into Clark County.”

Kent has repeated that point of view on Facebook. ““We don’t want the problems of downtown Portland dumped right into our district in Vancouver,” he said. “If you look at the murder rate, the crime rate, that’s the last thing we want in Vancouver.”

The New York Times says the I-5 dispute “… is an example of how Republicans…are seeking to transform even the most basic of local issues into battlegrounds in the nation’s culture wars in elections this year in which control of Congress is at stake. Mr. Kent’s attacks, which rely on buzzwords of the hard right, place the bridge at the center of a national political discussion that vilifies the left and plays on fears of demographic change.”

So I guess we can expect more of this as the Kent-Perez contest heats up.

Response by Paul O. Edgar

The I-5 bridge and light rail issues are about more than crime. 

The most important issue is whether there is a need to have this very expensive TriMet Light Rail Transit (LRT) line extended into Clark County, with an additional $2 billion added into the I-5 Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) plan cost. 

TriMet also wants to also get reimbursed for all operating costs. Currently they are estimated to be $21.6 Million dollars per year. 

TriMet already has a huge under-funded earned health and retirement obligation that the citizens of Clark County Washington would become partners in if the I-5 bridge/Light Rail project goes through. TriMet has been working on trying to deal with those obligations, but the limit on payroll tax revenues and other State of Oregon funds already make TriMet look like a Chapter 11 bankrupt organization. 

Reading its performance reports, TriMet ridership has plunged and costs have been understated.  The West-side Commuter Rail System (WES), for example, appears to be losing $1 million dollars per month and TriMet’s LRT may well be losing $10 million dollars per month. Some of that is because of the increase in virtual offices and public concerns about drug addicts and other troubled people on the system.

All this, plus burdensome bridge tolls, will mean added costs for Clark County commuters, 99% of whom will also not be able get directly to their place of work or back home on a Fixed Rail System without even more added costs. 
The cost of what Clark County residents would be the assuming of the costs associate with extending TriMet Light Rail Transit are to far great.

This is important, and you can read TriMet’s performance reports that less than 1% of the incident of travel generated in the TriMet Service are handled by TriMet. Not enough people will use TriMet Light Rail Transit and it would be very hard for people to justify the ongoing cost, including the toll costs that will go on for ever and ever. 

Maybe the answer for many Clark County residents who now travel to Portland will be to find employment and do their shopping elsewhere.