Democrats in Salem are preparing to dig much deeper into your pocket with a massive transportation revenue bill, HB 2025. Because its multiple parts obscure its impact on individuals, let’s look at what it would mean for car owners, which is about 92% of households in Oregon. There are over two dozen increases to vehicle-related fees in the bill.
Planning on buying a new car? Oregon’s zero percent vehicle sales tax has made it a great state in which to purchase a car. HB 2025 proposes a new Vehicle Sales Tax in the form of a 2% “transfer tax” on the sale price of new cars and a 1% tax on used cars valued at over $10,000. The average price paid for a new car in the U.S. in May 2025 was $48,799, according to Kelley Blue Book (Up from$21,041 in 2020).[1]That would mean a sales tax of $975.98 on your new car. The average price paid for a used car in Oregon is $35,556. That would mean a $335.56 sales tax.
Fees for vehicle registration would go up, too. Registration of a new car would increase from $43 to $113.
Oregon’s current vehicle registration fees for gas-powered passenger vehicles range from $126 to $156. The bill proposes a $66 increase to the existing vehicle registration fees. If you currently pay $126 to re-register your car, the cost could increase to $192 ($126 + $66) under HB 2025.
The cost of new license plates would rise from $12 to $33.
The cost to take a driver’s skill test at the DMV would increase from $45 to $111.
Buying or owning a gas-powered vehicle? Oregon’s current 40 cent per-gallon gas tax would increase to 50 cents per gallon in 2026 and 55 cents per gallon in 2027. The gas tax would be indexed to inflation beginning in 2029. The average vehicle in Oregon uses approximately 489 gallons of gas per year. That would mean a $48.90 increase in gas costs in 2026 and a $73.35 increase in gas costs in 2027.
Buying or own an electric or plug-in hybrid vehicle? A Road Usage Charge (RUC), a mandatory per-mile fee, would be imposed on electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle owners starting July 1, 2026 or these drivers could opt for a flat annual fee, initially set at $340. The proposed $340 annual tax is based on driving 18,000 miles a year at 20 mpg at the new gas tax rate
A payroll tax that funds public transit via the Statewide Transportation Fund would increase from 0.1% currently to 0.3% by 2030. The tax would increase to 0.18% in 2026 and then to 0.25% in 2028 and 0.3% in 2030.
In a time of growing economic stress for Oregonians, it’s going to be enough to drive you to the poor house.
[1] That was up from the average price of $21,041 for a new car in 2000. In other words, not only will multiple costs associated with a car go up under HB 2025, but you will likely be making increasingly higher monthly payments on your new car because you’ll take longer to pay it off. While 3-year car loans were once common, they are less typical now. Today, the most common car loan terms are 60 months (five years) and 72 months (six years), and increasingly car buyers are agreeing to go with seven and eight year car loans, leading to higher total financing costs. Then there’s the growing cost of repairs. Garage repair costs are up are up over 43% in there past six years and the cost of fixing damaged cars has gone up 28% since just 2021, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Update 9/24/2025: I see a lot of electric vehicles (EVs) around town, but apparently looks are deceiving. As of May 2025, 119,850 “zero emissions vehicles” (ZEV) were registered in Oregon, equaling 3.2 percent of the total vehicle fleet, according to the Cascade Policy Institute. Of those, only 84,636 were true zero-emission vehicles powered entirely by a battery. The remaining 35,214 vehicles were plug-in hybrids, which still rely on gasoline. The numbers show Oregon has reached just 34 percent of former Governor Kate Brown’s EV Adoption Targets established during her era.
The hoopla was energizing.
On Oct. 26, 2019, PGE celebrated the grand opening of its Eastport Plaza Electric Avenue EV charging station at 4000 SE 82nd Avenue in Portland.
“These charging stations are important to the mission of PGE, because we are committed to doing our part in solving global warming and Climate Change,” said PGE’s President & CEO, Maria Pope.
The Eastport Plaza location joined already operating Electric Avenue operations in Milwaukie, Hillsboro, Wilsonville, and downtown Portland.
Smiling PGE officials, representatives from TriMet, the City of Portland, and Multnomah County enthusiastically cut a ribbon to officially open the new 82nd Ave. charging station.
The national mood on EV’s was optimistic, too.
Global plug-in vehicles come in two basic varieties—all-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV). Ddeliveries reached 2.1 million units for 2018, 64% higher than for 2017. About 69% of sales were BEV and 31% were PHEV. Global BEV sales in 2019 were increasing at a slower pace than previously, but global plug-in vehicle deliveries still were headed toward 2.3 million units in 2019. Electrification was clearly on the minds of most forward-looking utilities.
More than four years later the mood is considerably less upbeat.
The pace of adoption has markedly slowed, and analysts have suggested the country is no longer likely to hit the federal government’s sales targets. Government targets for EV sales in 2024 call for each car manufacturer to hit 22% electric vehicle sales or face hefty fines. EV experts are warning the growth rate in electric vehicle uptake simply isn’t strong enough to make that target.
Earlier this week, dealers representing about 5,000 stores wrote to President Biden saying the charging infrastructure remains scattershot and unsold EVs are piling up on their lots. The letter urged Biden to “hit the brakes” on an EPA proposal that could codify the agency’s strictest-ever tailpipe emissions limits, proposed last April.
“Mr. President, we share your belief in an electric vehicle future,” the latest letter says. “We only ask that you not accelerate into that future before the road is ready.”
This followed an earlier November letter from about 4,000 dealerships calling on Biden to reconsider the proposed regulations, which they argued would mandate an unrealistic shift to battery-electric vehicles in the U.S.
A recent visit to the Eastport Plaza Electric Avenue charging site offers some reasons why manufacturers and dealers are getting antsy about EVs. And potential buyers, too.
The site has four DC fast chargers and two Level 2 chargers.[1] When I pulled in riding in a Nissan Leaf, one of the charging ports was broken. I was later told it had been broken for months. The three other fast chargers were in use. One vehicle was at 86% charged, one at 39% and the third at 22%. Only the 86% vehicle was occupied.
Broken charger at Eastport Electric Avenue
Choices open to us were to use a slow Level 2 charger or sit and wait for one of the fast charger slots to open up. Unlike at a gas station, there’s no assurance the vehicles ahead of you will move on in a timely manner.
We encountered similar issues at PGE’s Electric Avenue site in the heart of downtown Milwaukie at the corner of SE McLoughlin Blvd. and Jackson St.
As at Eastport, the Milwaukie site has six charging ports, four DC fast chargers and two Level 2 chargers. All four fast charging stations were occupied with no drivers in the vehicles. One vehicle was at 59%, one at 74%, one at 59% and one at 89%. One of the slow Level 2 chargers was being used, with the driver in the vehicle.
It is considered acceptable to leave your vehicle unoccupied while it’s charging, It used to be common EV etiquette, however, that when your vehicle was at 80% you would make way for another vehicle if others were waiting.
The U.S. Department of Energy still says, “Unless you truly need every ounce of driving range available in your vehicle, consider unplugging your electric vehicle when it has reached 80 percent charge or an acceptable charge level for your immediate driving needs.”
EV owners tell me the 80% rule is, however, now commonly abused. Another common abuse is leaving a fully charged vehicle unoccupied for an extended period, with no way for a waiting driver to know how long the wait will be. One EV driver can tell how much longer another EV needs to charge by reading the digital readout on the charger stating the EV’s current degree of charge and the length of time for its charging, but that doesn’t guarantee the vehicle owner will unplug in a timely manner.
The Department of Energy also urges EV owners not to consider charging sites as resting places. “An EV owner will often use a charge point as an hours-long parking spot versus a place to recharge and go,” the Department says. Doing so, of course, adds an extra problem in that extra-long periods of charging time tops off the battery, which is not optimal for EV performance.
Then, of course, there are gas and diesel vehicle owners who see open charging spaces as prime parking spots. “In a crowded parking lot, the sight of any open electric car charging spot can be too tempting for some to resist,” the Department of Energy warns.
PGE’s charging stations accept all major credit cards, but if you want to sign up for pre-paid or monthly subscription pricing for Electric Avenue chargers, things get a little more complicated because PGE has partnered with Shell Recharge to accomplish that.[2]
First, you have to download the Shell Recharge app to your phone in the Apple App store Google Play store or order a Shell Recharge RFID card.
When you’re ready to charge your vehicle, you have to activate a charging session through the Shell Recharge app or scan your Shell Recharge charging card. If you are at an Electric Avenue charger, you can select “subscription” in the app if you’d like to pay just $25 per month for unlimited charging at Electric Avenue chargers or choose another preferred payment option. When you’re done, your card will automatically be charged for the session.
Charging prices at PGE’s sites are:
Source: PGE
Unlike at a gas station where the price per gallon generally stays the same 24/7, prices may vary during peak times (weekdays from 3 to 8 p.m.) During this period, PGE says $0.19/kWh will be charged to your credit card or Shell Recharge account in addition to your $3, $5 or $25 unlimited pricing structure.
Whatever the price, Oregon’s hyper-projections for electric vehicle adoption are proving to be wishful thinking. And it’s probably not just about EV prices, battery life and range. Unless you have a charging station at home, you are forced to rely on public chargers, and that, as we discovered, can be a frustrating challenge.
On Nov. 6, 2017, Gov. Kate Brown signed Executive Order 17-21 stating “It is the policy of the State of Oregon to establish an aggressive timeline to achieve a statewide goal of 50,000 or more registered and operating electric vehicles by 2020.” (emphasis in original).
In 2019, Senate Bill 1044 set a target of 250,000 registered Zero Emission Vehicles on Oregon roads by 2025. In December 2022, Gov. Brown, in a burst of environmental overreach that slavishly followed California’s lead, announced that all new cars sold in Oregon would have to be emissions-free starting in 2035.
The number of Oregon-registered zero emission vehicles on Oregon roads as of September 2023 was just 70,000.
The likelihood that this number will grow to 250,000 over the next 12 months is nil.
[1] There are three power levels at EV charging stations. Level 1 is the standard wall plug found in homes that delivers 120V. You will generally get only 2-5 miles worth of charging power every hour. Level 2 delivers twice the amount of power with 240V, offering 40-65 miles of charging power every hour. DC Fast Charge is the delivers 480V, which can fill 80% of most car batteries in 30 to 40 minutes.
Oregon’s hyper-projections for electric vehicle adoption are proving to be wishful thinking.
On Nov. 6, 2017, Gov. Kate Brown signed Executive Order 17-21 stating “It is the policy of the State of Oregon to establish an aggressive timeline to achieve a statewide goal of 50,000 or more registered and operating electric vehicles by 2020.” (emphasis in original).
In 2019, Senate Bill 1044 restated the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) adoption target as 50,000 registered on Oregon roads by 2020.
It didn’t happen.
According to information provided by the Oregon Department of Transportation on Dec. 25, 2023, there were just 5,537 registered and operating electric vehicles in Oregon in 2020, 13,572 in 2021 and 23,163 in 2022.
Senate Bill 1044 also set a target of 250,000 registered Zero Emission Vehicles on Oregon roads by 2025.
That ain’t gonna happen either.
As of July 2023, there were 51,355 Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), vehicles powered solely by an electric battery, with no gas engine parts, registered and operating in Oregon, according to the Oregon Department of Energy.[1] The number of Oregon-registered zero emission vehicles on Oregon roads as of September 2023 was just 70,000. The likelihood that this number will grow to 250,000 over the next 12 months is nil.
In December 2022, Gov. Brown, in a burst of environmental overreach that slavishly followed California’s lead, announced that all new cars sold in Oregon would have to be emissions-free starting in 2035.
The way things are going, that’s a pipe dream.
The fact is adoption of zero emission EVs is falling far behind earlier exuberant expectations. Sales are growing, but the rate of growth is slowing and unsold inventory is piling up for multiple brands., despite car companies offering discounts and low-interest rates in an attempt to propel demand. The only segment seeing significant growth in demand is hybrids, which are not zero emission vehicles.
“The first wave of buyers willing to pay a premium for a battery-powered car has already made the purchase, dealers and executives say, and automakers arenow dealing with a more hesitant group, just as a barrage of new EV models are expected to hit dealerships in the coming years,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
Some resistance to EVs may also be emerging because of their environmental costs, particularly the need for minerals for the batteries. And as The Washington Post has pointed out, mining the minerals is only the first step.
“The ore is almost never pure and needs to be refined, or processed, to become the minerals that go into batteries, the Post reported. ” When it comes to processing, there is one major player: China, which handles more than half of the mineralscritical to EV batteries. These elements aren’t used only to power EVs; they also appear in everything from building materials to toys. But as the demand for EV components soars, so could dependency on China’s refining infrastructure.”
Resistance to EVs in Oregon may also be related to the insufficiency of charging ports. Oregon is hoping to install about 370 new electric vehicle charging ports across the state in 2024 as part of an Oregon Department of Transportation rebate program.
In the meantime, car companies are cutting back on plans for battery plants and EV production.
In mid-December, for example, Ford announced it was cutting its 2024 F-150 Lightning products by half. Ford has delayed about $12 billion in new EV investments, reducing some Mustang Mach-E production and postponing opening one of two planned Kentucky planned battery plants.
The high cost of EVs is one major factor that will likely continue to hold back their widespread adoption in Oregon. EVs remain much more expensive than internal combustion engine vehicles, especially in North America. High interest rates will also restrain purchases. Consumer frustrations with the availability of EV chargers, excessive charging times, questions about reliability and high repair costs are also undermining early robust sales predictions.
While maintenance costs for EVs are proving to be lower than for internal combustion vehicles (EV-owners spend half as much maintaining their vehicles as their gasoline-owning counterparts, according to Consumer Reports), repairs after collisions can cost thousands of dollars because the fixes tend to require more replacement parts, the vehicles are more complicated and fewer people do such repairs.
The market is reflecting the concerns about EVs as investors have responded to the changed outlook for them. The iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF | IDRV, set up in July 2019, seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of developed and emerging market companies that may benefit from growth and innovation in and around electric vehicles, battery technologies and autonomous driving technologies. A $10,000 investment at the fun’s inception would have more than doubled in value to $22,815 as of Nov. 2, 2021, but had declined to $14,432.58 as of Dec. 13, 2023.
So don’t bet the farm on EV predictions by politicians and bureaucrats. Their track record so far isn’t great.
[1] There were also 23,328 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) similar to a Hybrid, but with a larger battery and electric motor, plus a charging port and a gas tank, which cannot truly be considered Zero Emission Vehicles.
With the UAW strike against the Big Three automakers underway, much of the media coverage has focused on how the shift to EVs threatens jobs and profits.
The predominant story line is the automaker’s assertions that accommodating the union’s demands would make them uncompetitive against nonunionized domestic and foreign EV producers, such as Tesla and China’s BYD, when the automakers are making unprecedented and costly investments in EVs. On the other side of the coin, stories focus on the Big Three workers’ fear that the shift to EVs will threaten their jobs.
Lost in the shuffle is much discussion about what the changing automotive landscape is going to mean for ancillary auto-related businesses. And much of what has been written is oddly positive.
The Wall Street Journal, for example, recently ran a story about AutoZone, a major auto-parts retailer. “Broader industry dynamics remain favorable for auto parts retail,” the paper reported. “Cars on the road have reached a record average age of about 12.5 years and the share of vehicles in the so-called sweet spot with robust auto parts demand – those aged four to 12 years – are rising…Autozone has a clear path to growth…”
Don’t believe it.
Auto parts retailers are in for a shellacking.
Just as EV manufacturing will require a lot fewer workers, battery EVs are not going to need many of the products auto parts retailers sell.
I visited a massive AutoZone store in Tigard today. “Your one-stop shop for top-quality auto parts, accessories and trustworthy advice to keep your car, truck, or SUV running smoothly,” the store’s website says.
Memphis, Tennessee-based AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE: AZO) has 7,014 storesacross the United States, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Brazil and the US Virgin Islands.
A casual stroll through the Tigard store reveals the threats it faces, with shelf after shelf of products an EV owner won’t need:
“In an EV, there is no internal combustion engine, fuel tank, or fuel pumps, “ the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), points out on its website. “You won’t need to go get an oil change, and due to the use of regenerative braking, you won’t need to get your brakes changed as often either. Many EVs don’t even need or have a transmission. Those that do have a much simpler, single-speed system as opposed to the multi-speed gearboxes in gas-burning vehicles.”
Lawrence Burns, a former vice president of research and development at General Motors Co. until 2009 who now advises companies on the future of mobility, put it this way: “You don’t have an exhaust system, so you don’t have all those parts and the catalytic converter that goes with it. You don’t have the transmission. The transmission has an enormous number of parts — torque converters and clutches and gears. The automatic transmission is one of the most sophisticated mechanisms ever created. None of those are needed on an electric car.”
Tesla says its drivetrain, what provides the power to move the wheels, only has about 17 moving parts, compared to the hundreds of parts in a typical drivetrain for an internal combustion engine vehicle.
Ernst & Young has estimated that vehicles with conventional powertrains have as many as 2,000 components in their powertrains, with even more components if parts used for engine cooling and exhaust and sensors used in emissions control systems are added.
Green Car Future, an EV evangelist organization, emphasizes the difference in complexity between an EV and an internal combustion with the following:
Your Tesla – Complete Without…
Oil pump or filters
Fuel pump, filters or fuel injection systems
Air intake system
Exhaust system
Belts of any kind
Air filters (outside of a/c)
Muffler
Gudgeon pins
Chains
Alternator
Clutch
Multi-speed transmission
Conrods
Balance shafts
Spark plugs
Valve springs
Pressure regulators
Ignition leads
Main bearings
Piston rings
Coils
…and so the list goes on.
As Consumer Reports and the Argonne National Laboratory, a science and engineering research center, have reported, the reduction in complexity means EVs generally cost less for maintenance and have fewer maintenance requirements in comparison with internal combustion vehicles.
With all this, my advice to investors contemplating putting their money into auto parts retailers like AutoZone for the long term?
ThinkingOregon 
