Messages of Doom Aren’t Reaching Trumpers

A friend recently praised the The Atlantic’s January/February 2024 edition for turning over an entire issue to 24 writers offering dystopian warnings about a second Trump presidency. 

“In his first term, Trump’s corruption and brutality were mitigated by his ignorance and laziness, “ wrote David Frum. “In a second, Trump would arrive with a much better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers in tow, and a much more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries and impunity for himself.”

“Trump’s bullying of military leaders, journalists, and judges was never merely the ranting of an attention seeker, and that behavior—backed by the credible threat of violence from radicalized supporters—will likely become even more central to his governing style,” wrote Juliette Kayyem.

That should have a real impact on public discourse about Trump, my friend said.

Not likely.

The Atlantic, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The New Yorker, Vanity Fair, The Washington Monthly and multiple other elite liberal/progressive/left-leaning publications are preaching to the choir in covering politics and so much more of the cultural landscape. Far too often, their attention is on things the vast majority of Americans are simply not focusing on. 

As former New York Times editor James Bennet wrote in The Economist, “The reality is that the Times is becoming the publication through which America’s progressive elite talks to itself about an America that does not really exist.”

The New York Times illusions are reflected in its coverage of the HBO show “Succession”, described by one critic as “an amoral look at the stupidity of capitalism”. The paper droned on about the show interminably after its debut in June 2018. 

“…time has hardly dulled the beige sheen of “Succession”, New York Times reporter Alexis Soloski effused in the paper’s Dec. 3, 2024 edition. “In January it will likely dominate the Emmy Awards — all of the main cast received nominations and Armstrong earned two, for writing and as an executive producer — and no other show has come to replace it in the cultural consciousness.”

But the fact is Succession was a niche show, not even on the radar of most Americans. Succession’s May 2023 finale drew 2.9 million viewers, a series high. Even counting delayed viewing, “Succession” averaged just 8.7 million viewers per episode in its fourth and final season.

That’s with a total U.S. population of 341 million, with just about every household having a television or computer screen for streaming.

That’s how it is with the New York Times. Even though it now has about 10 million subscribers, and still claims it runs “All the News That’s Fit to Print”, it’s not really talking to America. 

According to the paper’s readership demographics, 91% of its readers identify as Democrats, only 7% of the readership doesn’t have a higher education degree and most of its readers are white and well-off. 

In other words, most people who read the New York Times and other liberal-leaning publications do so because they already share the political sensibilities of these publications.

And frankly, there’s not much incentive for pundits to go off the beaten track. As Osita Nwaney put it in a Columbia Journalism Review article about political writing, “…What’s worth writing about and how? The morsels of rage and misery we offer might not have much political effect, but they do feed an online writing economy that rewards speed, quantity, and deference to algorithms designed for the profit of three or four tech companies—an economy that offers few incentives to generate writing that lingers in the mind longer than half a day or half an hour…The whole system is one of the bleakest forms of entertainment imaginable.”

Similar limiting factors are present with most “elite” news outlets in the United States. 

Even television news and opinion shows reach a narrow audience. The days when Walter Cronkite dominated the scene,  reaching an estimated 27-29 million viewers per night, when the nation’s population was just over 200 million, are long gone. 

ABC World News Tonight with David Muir finished the week of November 27 at No. 1 in the evening news ratings race with an average of just 8.45 million viewers. That same week, NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt averaged 7.075 million viewers and The CBS Evening News with Norah O’Donnell averaged 5.05 million total viewers. In other words, the combined viewership of all three top evening network news shows totaled 20.56 million, about one third fewer viewers than Cronkite alone reeled in more than 40 years ago when America’s population was much smaller.

The proliferation of liberal political comment on social media  and in reams of political punditry also likely has less of an impact on the broad public than is often assumed. 

This is likely one big reason why all the hand-wringing about Trump in progressive publications and network news shows, isn’t denting Trump’s support. He’s still crushing his GOP presidential primary opponents and surpassing President Biden in the polls, even in a poll pitting Trump against Biden, Kennedy, West and Stein. 

Put simply, Trump’s supporters just aren’t listening. 

A Message to Protesters: Show Your Face

A group of more than 40 interns working in President Biden’s  White House and other executive branch offices have sent a letter to Biden and Vice President Harris accusing them of having “ignored” the “pleas of the American people” and calling on the Administration “…to demand a permanent cease fire.”

“We, the undersigned Fall 2023 White House and Executive Office of the President interns, will no longer remain silent on the ongoing genocide of the Palestinian people,” 

But despite the “We the undersigned” start to the letter, there were no names and signatures included. 

The demand for anonymity among protesters these days is cowardly, frustrating and annoying.

When Patrick Henry implored “Give me liberty, or give me death!” on March 23, 1775, he didn’t wear a face mask or send an anonymous letter to King George. He spoke up in a speech to the Second Virginia Convention at St. John’s Church in Richmond, Virginia.

But many of today’s most virulent protesters want no such personal exposure. They’d rather blend in with the mob, obscuring their individual responsibility. They want free speech without consequences. 

Observe the videos and photographs of ““From the river to the sea!” protests around the United States. 

In early October, the Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee put out a statement on its Instagram page that was originally co-signed by 33 other Harvard student organizations saying they “hold the Israeli regime entirely responsible for all unfolding violence” in the wake of a deadly invasion of Israel by the Islamist militant group Hamas. 

But after an intense local and national backlash from lawmakers, professors, and other students, the organizers removed the list of student organizations from the open letter.

At a pro-Palestinian “Vigil for the Martyrs of Palestine,” by Georgetown University students, nearly every one of the students hid their face with a mask. Similarly, when Several hundred people gathered in Bruin Plaza at UCLA for a walkout and march in support of Palestine, and when pro-Palestinian students at Princeton staged a walk-out and demonstration, many wore masks. 

Come on now. Wouldn’t it be better for people to stand behind their convictions?

Oregon’s K-12 Public Schools Are Failing Their American Indian Students

Shana McConville Radford of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation has joined Gov. Tina Kotek’s administration as Oregon’s first Tribal Affairs Director.

Shana McConville Radford

I have a job for her. 

Tackle the embarrassingly poor academic achievement and embarrassingly high absenteeism rates of K-12 American Indian and Alaska Native students in Oregon.[1]

Some truth-telling is essential here. It is painfully clear that Oregon’s schools are failing these young people and that somebody needs a good kick in the shins to set things right.

We need to give kids, all kids, the tools they need to make their own way. Allowing academic failure is not the way to do that.

The numbers from tests given during the 2022-2023 school year tell the story. A predominant share of the American Indian/Alaska Native students taking the tests were American Indian.

All the academic achievement numbers come from reams of data posted online by the Oregon Department of Education showing downloadable files of state assessment results in English Language Arts (ELA)Mathematics, and Science. Absenteeism figures come from data posted online by the Oregon Department of Education in Annual Performance Progress Reports on Attendance and Absenteeism. 

Some of the more egregious low proficiency scores were at districts that also have chronic student absenteeism, defined by the Oregon Department of Education as absent from school for more than 10% of the academic year.

The Department requires that there be no fewer than 265 consecutive calendar days between the first and last instructional day of each school year at each grade level, so missing 10% of school days would mean missing at least 26 days. 

It’s a lot of numbers, but they are worth examining closely..

SubjectStudent GroupGrade LevelPercent Proficient
English Language ArtsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeAll Grades25.6
English Language ArtsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 320.5
English Language ArtsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 424.0
English Language ArtsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 527.2
English Language ArtsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 622.1
English Language ArtsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 728.7
English Language ArtsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 825.6
English Language ArtsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade HS (11)31.1

SubjectStudent GroupGrade LevelPercent Proficient
MathematicsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeAll Grades13.6
MathematicsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 322.2
MathematicsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 418.2
MathematicsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 514.7
MathematicsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 610.0
MathematicsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 713.7
MathematicsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 810.9
MathematicsAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade HS (11)5.7
SubjectStudent GroupGrade LevelPercent Proficient
ScienceAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeAll Grades16.3
ScienceAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 514.1
ScienceAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade 814.7
ScienceAmerican Indian/Alaskan NativeGrade HS (11)20.8

A review of the performance of American Indian/Alaska Native students at individual districts is also revealing.

The details below show all Oregon school districts reporting enrollment of American Indian/Alaska Native students, in all grades, 2022-2023 and the % of students proficient of those tested.

Not all districts administered the Science test. Less than 5% means fewer than 5% of students who took the test achieved Level 3 or 4 / Meets or Exceeds. Absenteeism rates for American Indian/Alaska Native students in selected districts are also noted.

Athena-Weston SD 29RJ       

English language arts.  40%

Mathematics.  Less than 5%

Beaverton SD 48J

English language arts.  43.3%

Mathematics. 31.8%

Science. 21.2%

Bend-LaPine Administrative SD 1

English language arts.  33.3% 

Mathematics. 31.3%

Science. 36.8%

Bethel SD 52

English language arts.  25.9% 

Mathematics. 20.8%

Science. 9.1%

Brookings-Harbor SD 17C

English language arts.  20% 

Mathematics. Less than 5%

Science. 27.3%

Cascade SD 5

English language arts.  42.9% 

Mathematics. 21.4%

Science. 20%

Centennial SD 28J

English language arts.  17.4% 

Mathematics. Less than 5%

Central Point SD 6

English language arts.  32.1% 

Mathematics. 17.9%

Central SD 13J

English language arts.  31.3% 

Mathematics. 5.9%

Coos Bay SD 9

English language arts.  20% 

Mathematics. 8.9%

Science. 25%

Corvallis SD 509J

English language arts.  Less than 5% 

Mathematics. 8.3%

Creswell SD 40

English language arts.  30.8%

Mathematics. 21.4%

Crook County SD

English language arts.  26.3% 

Mathematics. 16.7%

Dallas SD 2

English language arts.  29.5% 

Mathematics. 14.8%

Science. 12.2%

David Douglas SD 40

English language arts. 16.1%

Mathematics. 10.0%

Science. 9.1%

Dufur SD 29

English language arts.  10.5%

Mathematics. Less than 5%

Eagle Point SD 9

English language arts.  47.4% 

Mathematics. 31.6%

Science. 40%

Eugene SD 4J

English language arts.  37.8%

Mathematics. 31.6%

Science. 38.5%

Forest Grove SD 15

English language arts.  25.0%

Mathematics. 16.7%

Grants Pass SD 7

English language arts.  50% 

Mathematics. 7.1%

Greater Albany Public SD 8J

English language arts.  26.7% 

Mathematics. 21.4%

Science. 27.3%

Gresham-Barlow SD 10J

English language arts.  35.5%

Mathematics. 17.2%

Science. 28.6%

Harney County SD 3

English language arts.  13.3%

Mathematics. 6.7%

Hillsboro SD 1J

English language arts.  32.6%

Mathematics. 23.3%

Science. 13.6%

Hood River County SD

English language arts.  29.4% 

Mathematics. 5.9%

Jefferson County SD 509J

English language arts.  17.5%

Mathematics. 6.4%.

Science. 8.4%

NOTE. 49.7% of American Indian/Alaska Native students in Jefferson County SD 509J were chronically absent in the 2022-23 school year.

Junction City SD 69

English language arts.  60%

Mathematics. 30%

Klamath County SD

English language arts.  27.1%

Mathematics. 14.6%

Science. 17%

NOTE: 38.5% of the American Indian/Alaska Native students in the  Klamath County SD were chronically absent in the 2022-23 school year..

Klamath Falls City Schools

English language arts.  20.8% proficient

Mathematics. 11.3%

Science. 9.1%

NOTE: 69.5% of American Indian/Alaska Native students in the Klamath Falls City Schools district were chronically absent in the 2022-23 school year.

Lincoln County SD

English language arts.  16.5%

Mathematics. 5.9%

Science. 9.3%.

NOTE: 57.9% of the American Indian/Alaska Native students in the Lincoln County SD were chronically absent in the 2022-23 school year.

McMinnville SD 40

English language arts.  45.9%

Mathematics. 40%

Science. 47.1%

Medford SD 549C

English language arts.  51.3%

Mathematics. 21.1%

Science. 29.4%

Molalla River SD 35

English language arts.  16.7% 

Mathematics. 15.4%

Myrtle Point SD 41

English language arts.  30%

Mathematics. 10%

Newberg SD 29J

English language arts.  Less than 5%

Mathematics. Less than 5%

North Bend SD 13

English language arts.  32% 

Mathematics. 36%

Science. 33.3%

North Clackamas SD 12

English language arts.  20%

Mathematics. 17.6%

Science. 10%

North Wasco County SD 21

English language arts.  26.1%

Mathematics. 8.7%

Science. 9.1%

Oregon Trail SD 46

English language arts.  42.9%

Mathematics. 28.6%

Pendleton SD 16

English language arts. 27.8% 

Mathematics. 9.1%

Science. 14%

NOTE: 51.3% of the American Indian/Alaska Native students in the Pendleton SD 16 district were chronically absent. in the 2022-23 school year.

Phoenix-Talent SD 4

English language arts.  9.1% 

Mathematics. Less than 5%

Portland SD 1J

English language arts.  17.2% 

Mathematics. 11.6%

Science. 15.2%

NOTE: 66.1% of the American Indian/Alaska Native students in the Portland SD 1J district were chronically absent in the 2022-23 school year. 

Redmond SD 2J

English language arts.  40.0% 

Mathematics. 26.7%

Reynolds SD 7

English language arts.  23.3%

Mathematics. 13.3%

Science. Less than 5%

Salem-Keizer SD 24J

English language arts.  21.8%

Mathematics. 8.5%.

Science. 18.3%

NOTE: 58.2% of the American Indian/Alaska Native students in Salem-Keizer SD 24J district were chronically absent in the 2022-23 school year.

Santiam Canyon SD 129J

English language arts.  20%

Mathematics. 20%

Sheridan SD 48J

English language arts.  12.9%

Mathematics. 6.7%

Science. Less than 5%

South Lane SD 45J3

English language arts.  12.5%

Mathematics. 12.5%

South Umpqua SD 19

English language arts.  20%

Mathematics. 10%

Springfield SD 19

English language arts.  31.4%

Mathematics. 13.9%

Science. 29.4%

St Helens SD 502

English language arts.  18.8%

Mathematics. 6.7%

Sutherlin SD 130

English language arts.  13.3%

Mathematics. 13.3%

Three Rivers/Josephine County SD

English language arts.  27.9%

Mathematics. 11.6%

Science. 5.3%t

Tigard-Tualatin SD 23J

English language arts.  33.3%

Mathematics. 33.3%

Umatilla SD 6R

English language arts.  20%

Mathematics. 10%

Willamina SD 30J

English language arts.  25.4%

Mathematics. 8.7%

Science. Less than 5%

Winston-Dillard SD 116

English language arts.  23.1%

Mathematics. 16.7%


[1] American Indian/Alaskan Native – As defined by the Oregon Department of Education, includes all students identified as having origins in any of the original peoples of North America and not Hispanic.

Fraud on Overseas Bank Credit Cards Worries Oregon Businesses

Expelled New York Congressman George Santos, who has been indicted for stealing the identities of campaign donors and using their credit cards to rack up tens of thousands of dollars in unauthorized charges, isn’t the only master of credit card fraud.

The latest identity theft and credit card fraud statistics paint a bleak picture. There were 1.108 million reports of identity theft in 2022 and 805,000 instances of identity theft were reported from January through September 2023.

Aggressive fraudsters are active throughout the United States, including in Oregon.

In February 2023, Mariam Gevorkova was sentenced to five years in federal prison and required to pay $2.5 million in restitution for her involvement in a fraudulent credit-card scheme that funded two illegal marijuana grows in Oregon and cannabis shop in Corvallis. 

The newest broad appearance of credit card fraud in Oregon involves a slew of Japan, Singapore, Italy, Thailand, Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong and United Arab Emirates- based banks. The fraud has become so pervasive that some local businesses are refusing to even the accept credit cards of specific banks.

The A&W fast-food outlet in Sherwood, OR, for example is serving up more than its namesake root beer. It’s also serving up credit card warnings. Posted at its counter is the following advisory:

A&W, Sherwood, OR

An employee at the restaurant said the posting was necessary because of fraud associated with the credit cards at the listed banks.

Complaints by customers of these banks are also piling up. 

In March 2023, one victim reported receiving 11 notifications of unauthorized transactions on his Tokyo, Japan-based AEON Financial Services Co. credit card, each for the same amount of $549.74 within two minutes. The total amount of unauthorized transactions reached over $6,014.33.

A customer of Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB), complained of multiple fraudulent payments made on his card. “Disgraceful.  Tried to call their so -called fraud hotline 5 times. Wait ten minutes each time and get automated voice saying call back, operators too busy. In the meantime another fraudulent transfer happened…” 

“I have 12 fraudulent transactions on the same day to the same US based company and not a single OTP (one-time passcode) received,” reported another UOB customer. “Your security systems of protecting customer’s money are a joke!!”

UOB recently acquired Citigroup’s consumer banking businesses in four key the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) markets. 

A US customer of Dubai-based Emirates NDB Bank reported fraudulent transactions totaling $12,000. “2 transactions (were) done in Russia while I was in Dubai,” he reported. “As soon as I got the WhatsApp notification about the purchase, I called the bank and reported the fraud. On the phone the agent told me my credit card was cloned.”

If you have a credit card issued bv one of these banks and discover fraud on your account, you’re encouraged to report it to local law enforcement and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The FTC tracks incidents in a central database to help law enforcement investigate and prosecute these crimes. 

The Pronoun Police Are Patrolling Oregon Schools

The Human Rights Campaign once tweeted that we should all “Begin conversations with “Hi, my pronouns are _____. What are yours?” 

Not so fast, critics have responded.

“Coercing people into publicly stating their pronouns in the name of “inclusion” is a Trojan horse that empowers gender ideology and expands its reach,” said Colin Wright, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. “It is the thin end of the gender activists’ wedge designed to normalize their worldview. The effort to resist gender ideology is reality’s last stand. We simply can’t ignore fundamental realities of our biology and expect positive outcomes for society. “

The battle is on.

Much of the conflict has arisen in academic settings, including K-12 schools and colleges.

Students at Scripps College in Claremont, CA. have been advised that they can choose which of numerous different pronouns they want professors to use in addressing them.

Pronoun options were:

One student said the options were necessary protection from “institutionalized violence.”

Not to be left behind, the State of Oregon has embraced the same pronoun policies, turning appropriate pronoun usage into compelled speech.

In October 2021, Colt Gill, then Director of the Oregon Department of Education, used his Education Update email message to urge Oregonians to “Celebrate International Pronoun Day with ODE.”

“When we collectively share our names and pronouns, we can share the burden of fighting against injustice,” he wrote. “Pronoun sharing within the workplace and throughout school communities is an important opportunity to build trust and connection with transgender, non-binary, two-spirit colleagues, students, friends, and community members.”

Gill told educators:

  • If you are comfortable, share your pronouns when you’re introducing yourself at the start of a meeting: “I’m (Name) and I use she and they pronouns” 
  • Change your Zoom name to include your pronouns, every time: Name, (she/they), ODE 
  • Include pronouns in your ODE email signature 

In January 2023, ODOE issued Supporting Gender Expansive Students: Guidance for Schools. Included in the guidance is the following:

  • Gender expansive students may choose to change the name assigned to them at birth to an asserted name that affirms their gender identity. Gender expansive students may also ask to be referred to by the pronouns that affirm their gender identity.
  • Even if a student does not update their records, they should be referred to by their asserted name and pronouns Intentional or unintentional continuous misgendering of a student by refusing to use their asserted name and pronouns can potentially create a hostile environment. 
  • Schools should engage in student-led support planning for name and pronoun changes. Once the school and student have decided on a supportive action plan, the school should immediately take action to implement the plan.”

The guidance cautioned about disclosing the decisions students make. “To the extent possible, schools should refrain from revealing information about a student’s gender identity, even to parents, caregivers, or other school administrators, without permission from the student.”

When a local news outlet asked ODOE about the policy providing leeway to keep parents in the dark on official school transitions, ODE said this was for a “safety concern.”

On Oct. 19, 2023, the State Board of Education lent its weight to the pronouns dispute, adopting new health K-12 education standards that include:“Demonstrate ways to treat all people with dignity and respect, including people of all genders, gender expressions and gender identities” starting in the 4th grade. 

The new standards will come into full effect in Oregon public schools by the 2025-26 school year. 

Educators and other Oregonians who are less than enthusiastic about the progressive pronoun push may hope the campaign will abate, but it looks like the beatings will continue until morale improves and educators with the courage to challenge the received wisdom of the education establishment will be at risk.

An ever-growing list of pronouns have now become expressions of one’s self-proclaimed identity, a claim that proponents insist everyone must affirm—or else.

Some critics argue that all this is just capitulating to a politically correct, Orwellian effort to validate social progressive doctrines.

Others argue that the controversy is just a way for ideologues to browbeat people, to claim authority over how people speak and to allow language commissars to monitor incorrect speech in schools, workplaces and life.

 Compelling expansive pronoun usage is a dramatic curtailment of freedom of speech, critics assert. As Graham Hillard, managing editor at the James G. Martin Center for Academic Renewal, put it, “When Big Brother arrives in the 21st century, he will appear not on posters but in grammar handbooks, HR manuals, and social media”

In the meantime, how should you navigate the rocky shoals of the pronoun wars without being chastised, harassed, berated and charged with insensitivity?

‘Tis a puzzlement.

Portland’s Striking Teachers and Their Union Leaders are at Escalating Risk of Losing Public Support.

 Portland, Oregon, long a bastion of anything-goes progressivism, can’t take this strike much longer. 

 Facts are stubborn things. A city still recovering from the pandemic, buffeted by economic uncertainty and battered by homelessness, proliferating graffiti, rampant drug use and crime, simply can’t afford to keep its kids home.

The union says it’s fighting for the children, but they will have missed 14 days of classes by Thanksgiving and may miss more. 

This in a district which is already struggling with high rates of student absenteeism. In the 2022-2023 school year, 36.4% of the district’s students were “chronically absent”, absent for more than 10% of the academic year. Chronic absentee rates were 52.9% for Black/African American students, 48% for Hispanic/Latino students, 66.1% for American Indian/Alaska Native students, 59.9% for Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, 31.4% for white students and 22.7% for Asian students.

“The fact that absenteeism has gone up is the biggest issue right now and has been overlooked,” says the Lewis-Sebring Director of the UChicago Consortium on School Research, Elaine Allensworth. “People keep focusing on the test scores, but our research shows over and over again that student attendance is an incredibly strong predictor of pretty much every outcome you care about: High school graduation, college ready, college enrollment, college graduation. It’s vital that students actually come to school every day.”

And then there’s the performance of Portland Public Schools kids on state subject competency tests, likely already exacerbated by high absenteeism. Although mostly better than statewide results, they are still disappointing, often showing declining scores as children move through the system. 

At Portland’s elementary schools, for example, 56% of tested students met or exceeded state standards in math in the 3rd grade in 2023, while just 40% met or exceeded state standards in the 8thth grade, 55% met or exceeded English standards in the 3rd grade compared with 54% in the 8th grade and 44% met the standards in science in the 5th grade versus 38% in the 8th grade. 

At the district’s high schools, just 27of 11th graders met or exceeded state standards in Math, 50% met or exceeded the standards in English and 39% met or exceeded the standards in science.

Of course, all this probably matters less now that the State Board of Education unanimously voted to extend the 2021 law that paused a requirement that Oregon students show proficiency in Essential Learning Skills in order to graduate.

The District’s teachers also need to confront a public perception that a massive amount of money is already being plowed into the troubled system. 

Taxpayers are already spending an astronomical amount to support Portland Public Schools, as I pointed earlier this year in The Cost of Sending Kids to Portland Public Schools is More Than You Think, a Lot More. The commonly used number for spending per student is $15,000, but that’s actually way off. All funds available to the District in the 2022-23 school year totaled $1.9 billion. Divide that by 41,470 students and per student expenditures came out to $45,533.

And that was more than the District spent per student in the 2021-22 school year, even though the number of students served declined. In the fall of 2021, the District enrolled 45,005 students in grades K-12, a decrease of 1,932 students from fall 2020. The net loss was even greater than the previous year’s loss of 1,716 students.

A recent “Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast” by Portland State University’s Population Research Center projected that the District’s enrollment will likely continue to fall throughout most of the forecast’s horizon, declining to a low of 39,123 in 2035-36. 

How can the union expect spending to keep increasing in the face of enrollment declines.  

Portland residents also aren’t likely to look more favorably on higher taxes or fees to help the district as the strike continues.  Portland’s income tax rate of 14.7% for earners is already second only to New York City, largely because of resident’s previous misguided willingness to support innumerable feel-good programs. Portland’s rate is even more punitive when you consider that an individual hits that high earner mark in Portland at $125,000, while a New York taxpayer would have to earn $25 million.

The Portland Metro Chamber recently noted that total taxes paid by businesses located in the City of Portland increased by about one-third, or from $781 million to $1.031 billion, just from 2019 to 2021, according to calculations by the global tax consultancy Ernst & Young.

Key changes during that three-year period, included implementation of a gross receipts tax for the Portland Clean Energy Fund, a property tax to fund city parks, a rate increase in the Multnomah County business tax, an income tax to support Preschool for All (paid in part by sole proprietors), property taxes for Multnomah County library renovations, and new business and personal taxes associated with Metro’s Supportive Housing Services measure.

The Preschool for All program, for example, is funded by a personal income tax based on the following thresholds:

  • Single taxpayers. All Oregon taxable income over $125,000 is taxed at 1.5%. All income above $250,000 is taxed at 3%. In 2026, the tax rate increases by 0.8%
  • Joint filers. All Oregon taxable income over $200,000 is taxed at 1.5%. All income above $400,000 is taxed at 3%. In 2026, the tax rate increases by 0.8%.

“Portland’s higher level of business taxation dates to the enactment of corporate income taxes levied by the City of Portland and Multnomah County in 1981,” the Chamber said. “ These local-level business income taxes are not common in other cities across the U.S.”

If the Portland Association of Teachers hopes to come out of this with continuing public support, teachers need to get back too work and kids need to get back in class. Parent and student patience is not inexhaustible. 

Civilian Deaths in Gaza Lie at Hamas’s Door

“Far too many Palestinians have been killed, far too many have suffered these past weeks,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday in New Delhi.

Do you think Hamas cares?

When Hamas terrorists launched an unprecedented and sadistic surprise attack on Israel  with cold indifference on Oct. 7, brutally butchering and massacring more than 1,200 people, injuring at least 6,900, taking more than 240 people hostage (There is still been no formal master list of hostages held, because Hamas hasn’t provided one), and launching thousands of missiles at Israel from the Gaza Strip, did they expect to overrun the country and eliminate Israelis from the river to the sea? 

Not in the least.

Their aim was to cause chaos and invite massive retaliation, hoping the retaliation could be twisted to undermine Israel’s right to exist and justify Hamas’s cause. 

Israel initially gained wide support in the face of Hamas’s savagery. 

President Biden condemned the atrocities committed by Hamas fighters, including the “slaughter” of men, women and entire families, as well as “stomach-churning reports of babies being killed.”

“The United States unequivocally condemns this appalling assault against Israel by Hamas terrorists from Gaza,” Biden said in a statement. “Israel has a right to defend itself and its people.” 

U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk said he was “shocked and appalled” by the attack. Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Union’s executive commission, called the attack “terrorism in its most despicable form.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “Israel’s right to self-defense cannot be questioned.”

But as Israel has retaliated militarily in Gaza in an effort to punish Hamas, and more civilians have been caught in the crossfire, some because Hamas has demanded they stay in place, the public debate has shifted. The portrayal of Israel as the aggressor has emerged, just as Hamas surely hoped it would. 

Now the media is laser focused on the civilian casualties occurring with Israel’s response, all but eclipsing the Oct. 7 barbarities of Hamas. In achieving that shift, Hamas is turning itself into the victim.

Nowhere is that victim status more embraced now that at many American institutions of so-called higher learning. At Harvard, The Palestine Solidarity Committee issued a joint statement with more than 30 other student groups that held Israel “entirely responsible for all unfolding violence.” ” The apartheid regime is the only one to blame,” it continued.

” When antisemitism moves from the shameful fringe into the public square, it is not about Jews, It is never about Jews,” observed Bari Weiss, editor of The Free Press, in a recent speech to the Federalist Society. “It is about everyone else. It is about the surrounding society or the culture or the country. It is an early warning system—a sign that the society itself is breaking down. That it is dying.  It is a symptom of a much deeper crisis—one that explains how, in the span of a little over 20 years since Sept 11, educated people now respond to an act of savagery not with a defense of civilization, but with a defense of barbarism.”

Sarah Katz, an author with a background in Middle East Studies and counterterrorism, argues that statements such as the one from Harvard’s Palestine Solidarity Committee reflect the conflict of ideologies that has arisen between alleged racist perpetrators and racialized victims.

“When applied to Israel and Palestine, Israel as the “powerful Western oppressor” and Palestine as the “brave non-white victim” have captured the hearts and minds of many esteemed institutions,” Katz wrote recently in the Jewish Journal.  “This oppressor/victim binary tends to dismiss any reference to the culpability of any Palestinian entity in events preceding Israeli retaliation.”

As Ben Kawaller put it in a Free Press post, “What’s really righteous is to promulgate a fundamental loathing of anyone belonging to the “oppressor” class.”

It is essential to know all this when confronting the tragedy that is now Gaza. This is not to ignore or downplay the civilian deaths in Gaza, but Hamas does not get to position itself as the honorable resistance movement in Gaza because of them.

A Lesson for the Portland Association of Teachers

The Portland Association of Teachers isn’t going to get what it wants.

Voters in Salem just signalled why.

On Tuesday, Nov. 7, Salem voters smashed to smithereens a proposed payroll tax passed by the city council in July. 

A total of 82.14% of voters rejected the tax, which would have applied to anyone who worked in Salem, including people commuting into the city from elsewhere.

The fact is, voters are worried about their well-being and in no mood to bear increased government spending. Across the board, they feel that their incomes are being eroded by inflation, that their pay raises aren’t keeping up with inflation, and that their hard-earned living standards are threatened.

The teachers union says it’s on strike “for our students” and insists that the public is behind it. Before the strike, the union trumpeted the results of a poll it sponsored that found Oregonians were inclined to stand with educators and supported teacher strikes, especially in the Portland School District.

I don’t think the teachers can count on that support if it means more money out of the public’s pockets.

After all, taxpayers are already spending an astronomical amount to support Portland Public Schools. As I wrote earlier this year, The Cost of Sending Kids to Portland Public Schools is More Than You Think, a Lot More. The commonly used number for spending per student is $15,000, but that’s actually way off. All funds available to the District in the 2022-23 school year totaled $1.9 billion. Divide that by 41,470 students and per student expenditures came out to $45,533. That’s right, $45,533.

The state’s politicians, including the governor, have figured this out and have made it clear the state won’t bail out the district. And rightly so.  As OPB has noted, “It would be unusual — and scandalous in many corners of the state — for the Legislature to find a special pool of money just for Portland schools, particularly since other districts face similar issues.”

Multnomah County residents aren’t likely to look favorably on higher taxes or fees to help the district either. Multnomah County already has the highest marginal tax rates in the United States because of resident’s previous misguided willingness to support innumerable feel good programs. 

“I’m sure that when the voters in Multnomah County supported all of those different proposals and programs, they did it with good intent. But collectively, every time that we vote for an increase, particularly in marginal income tax, that definitely has a dampening impact on investment in our community,” Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler said earlier this year.

Multnomah County has already seen people vote with their feet against rising taxes. 

The county lost population in the year ended July 1, 2022, the U.S. Census Bureau said in its annual report on county-level changes. The county’s population stood at 795,083 on July 1, 2022, down 12,494 (1.3%) from 805,593 a year earlier. This followed a similar decline in 2021. 

Then, of course, the teacher’s union has to recognize that they want more money when the number of students in the system is declining. Enrollment numbers in the Portland Public School District have been dropping every year since 2019, with the biggest loss of students at the elementary school level. No business would give in to demands for higher pay if its sales were dropping like a stone. 

Lars Larson Got It Wrong On Portland Public Schools


Conservative radio host Lars Larsen missed the mark.

In an Oct. 24 column about the impending strike by Portland Public School teachers, Larson said the district “… spends 15-thousand bucks, per student, per year.” 

He’s off by a mile.

I’m not surprised, though, that he used the $15,000 figure. That number is frequently cited in news stories. It is also close to the number put out by the National Center for Education Statistics, which estimates the per pupil expenditure in Oregon’s K-12 public schools for 2019-2020 was $14,829.[1]

Earlier this year I asked the Portland Public School District if that number still holds. The district said the average of budgeted per pupil expenditures for next year (2023-2024) is actually $11,000 per student. 

“This represents standardized site services. (teachers, principals, counselors, etc,” the district explained. “It does not include services like transportation, nutrition, SpEd, ESL or other central office supports and operations. “

So, is Larson’s number too high? is $11,000 actually the answer?

Nope. 

Now stay with me. 

“Once you include services like transportation, nutrition, SpEd, English as a Second Language Programs (ESL), other central office supports and operations, from a whole system perspective the budgeted per pupil expenditure number doubles and is closer to $22k/student (this is both GenFund and Special Revenue and does not include bond dollars).,” the District told me.

This is getting confusing. Is $22,000 the final number then?

Nope, again.

It’s not so much a lie as an obfuscation, a deceit.  

A lot of things PPS spends money on are not counted in calculating spending per student. When all spending is thrown into the pot, the spending per student jumps up substantially.

Let’s look at the 2022-2023 school year.

PPS served 41,470 students that year. At $22,000 per student, that would translate to total spending of $912.3 million. But the District’s 2022-2023 budget is actually $1.883 billion.

Why the huge difference?

Put simply, the $22,000 doesn’t take into account all funds that support the District each year. The table below, provided by the District, shows all resources available to the district for the school years 2018-19 through 2022-23. 

This table shows that all funds available to the District in the 2022-23 school year actually totaled $1.9 billion. divide that by 41,470 students and per student expenditures comes out to $45,533. That’s right, $45,533.

And that was more than the District spent per student in the 2021-22 school year, even though the number of students served declined.

In the fall of 2021, the District enrolled 45,005 students in grades K-12, a decrease of 1,932 students from fall 2020. The net loss was even greater than the previous year’s loss of 1,716 students.

A recent “Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast” by Portland State University’s Population Research Center projected that the District’s enrollment will likely continue to fall throughout most of the forecast’s horizon, declining to a low of 39,123 in 2035-36.  

In the meantime,  Angela Bonilla, president of the Portland Association of Teachers, is arguing , We’ve been sounding the alarm to the district for nearly a year in bargaining sessions, but Portland Public Schools management has not been willing to fund what our schools need

And the beat goes on.

[1] According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the $14,829 of per student expenditures comprise expenditures for the day-to-day operation of schools and school districts for public elementary and secondary education, including expenditures for staff salaries and benefits, supplies, and purchased services. General administration expenditures and school administration expenditures are also included in current expenditures. 

Expenditures associated with repaying debts and capital outlays (e.g., purchases of land, school construction, and equipment) are excluded from current expenditures. Programs outside the scope of public prekindergarten through grade 12 education, such as community services and adult education, are not included in current expenditures. Payments to private schools and payments to charter schools outside of the school district are also excluded from current expenditures. The Center says researchers generally use current expenditures instead of total expenditures when comparing education spending between states or across districts because current expenditures exclude expenditures for capital outlay, which tend to have dramatic increases and decreases from year to year. Also, many school districts support community services, adult education, private education, and other nonelementary-secondary programs, which are included in total expenditures. These programs and the extent to which they are funded by school districts vary greatly both across and within states and school districts.

Batten Down the Hatches: Portland’s New Form of Government is Going to Cost a Bundle 

In 2022, when Portland voters considered Ballot Measure 26-228 proposing transformational changes to city government, the City Budget Office estimated the cost of implementing the measure would be $910,000 to $8.7 million annually. 

“The range of the cost estimate is dependent on policy decision making outside the charter scope,” the Charter Review Commission said. 

Talk about buying a pig in a poke. To say the least, that left a lot of wiggle room.

Based on discussions to date, you can count on the final number being on the high end.

First, even the City Budget Office’s number is a ballpark estimate at best. As the Office said, “It is essential to note that the figures in this report are estimates and this report does not represent a budget document. Costs associated with council and mayor staffing levels, ranked choice voting implementation, and other election-related costs will only be known after certain operational milestones.”

Unknown’s, for example, are costs associated with the new ranked choice voting system, including voter education and outreach and changes in the Small Donor Elections program that provides candidates who have broad community support and follow program rules with up to a 9-to-1 match on the first $20 of small donations they receive from Portland residents. 

On top of that, according to Willamette Week, an emerging  sticking point is renovation of City Hall to accommodate the City Council’s expansion from a mayor and 4 commissioners to a mayor and 12 commissioners elected to represent four new geographic districts. 

From 5 to 13

Despite nearly a third of Portland’s downtown office market sitting vacant, and companies potentially reducing their footprint in more than 500,000 square feet of leased space that is set to expire market-wide during the balance of 2023, the city has budgeted up to $7.2 million to renovate City Hall to accommodate the council’s expansion. 

That renovation does not take into account the potential cost of establishing an individual office for each of the 12 commissioners within their district.

Meanwhile, Mayor Wheeler has proposed spending $893,000 – $1.4 million to relocate commissioners’ offices to another city building during the City Hall renovation.

Then there’s the need to plan for a City Administrator and that person’s staff. The Administrator will be responsible for implementing the laws approved by the City Council and manage the city’s bureaus. 

Mayor Wheeler has proposed that the City Administrator have an assistant city administrator and five deputies who would each oversee groups of the city’s bureaus. There are currently 26 bureaus, but that could change. Presumably, the City Administrator, Deputy City Administrator and the five deputies would also have administrative assistants of some sort.

Then there’s the issue of paying the mayor and the 12 city commissioners. Their initial pay has been set by an independent salary commission that was appointed in Jan. 2023. 

In June 2023, the salary commission decided to give all of Portland’s elected officials big pay raises under the new governance system.  The annual base pay for all incoming City Council members will be $133,207, $7,513 more than the current rate. The mayor’s annual base pay will be $175,463, a $26,202 raise. The salaries will go into effect in January 2025.

The salary commission was not responsible for proposing how the city should pay the new salaries. The current City Council will have to figure that out. 

Then there will be the staff of the mayor and each of the 12 commissioners. Currently, each city commissioner’s office has eight employees, including the commissioner, a chief of staff, and other aides performing a variety of duties.

Under Portland’s Adopted Budget for 2023-2024, three of the commissioners have a budget for 8 full-time positions and one (Dan Ryan) has a budget for 9 full-time positions::

  • Commissioner of Public Affairs, Rene Gonzales: $724,246
  • Commissioner of Public Safety, Mingus Mapps: $740,085
  • Commissioner of Public Utilities, Carmen Rubio: $775,038
  • Commissioner of Public Works, Dan Ryan: $761,405

In 2022, the City Budget Office assumed each of the twelve new offices would have between 3 and 4.7 full-time equivalent staff members supporting the Councilor and that each district of 3 representatives would have some level of shared staff providing communications and business operations functions. 

Mayor Wheeler has proposed that each of the 12 councilors have two aides and some shared staff. Three of the current City Council members have proposed that each of the 12 Council members have just one staff person and that there be some administrative staff to serve all the council members.

If the number lands at the total envisioned by the City Budget Office or Mayor Wheeler, be prepared to for higher costs with such an elaborate expanded city government and for calls for more staff as the 12 individual commissioners press for more power.

And get ready for more waste as time goes on.

As humorist P.J. O’Rourke put it, “It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.”